The future of the news industry, both print and
television, is online. That doesn’t mean that people will not consume news
while sitting on the couch or at the breakfast table. But that news may be
displayed on a TV-like display or a digital print device like Amazon’s Kindle -
not on paper or broadcast TV.
Traditional print and broadcast television will soon be
relegated to the past. The writing is on the wall. You need not look any
further than the financial statements of the major newspapers to see that this
transformation is underway. Subscription revenues are falling, and internet ad
revenue is a growing percentage of total ad revenue.
There is also good news in those financial statements.
Internet revenues are today only a small percentage of total newspaper
revenues. The lion’s share of the “creative destruction” is still ahead of us -
and local media companies are sitting in a perfect spot to take advantage of
that fact. But how?
Online advertising is an immature industry and changes
rapidly. Old line media companies, often saddled with debt, do not. That has to
change, and there are two components to that change - corporate transformation,
and technical focus.
Many major media companies have lots of debt. With hard
assets like printing operations and broadcast infrastructure, this debt makes
sense. It maximizes the return on investment, and traditional print and
broadcast media have been stable enough to support fairly aggressive financial
leverage. That is about to change.
The online world is laden with risk - it is rapidly
changing and unstable. This is not a good time to build up debt. Flexibility is
the key to success.
So what is a media company to do? One strategy would be
to spin off Internet related assets into a debt-free company. This is great for
the newly created Internet media company- you get a smaller, more risk tolerant
organization that is primed for growth into the new Internet media industry.
But what of the other side? The old broadcast and print
company, now stripped of it’s higher growth Internet components, will be left
with all of the pre-split debt. Unfortunately, this company will have to be
managed as if it were going to disappear (or at least shrink dramatically).
That means aggressive payment of debt and reduction of workforce as the market
shrinks. It will be painful, but it’s the only choice. The alternative is
bankruptcy and eventual liquidation.
Fortunately, there is still time for this. Broadcast and
print are still producing significant revenues. There is still hope for an
orderly contraction of a traditional media company, debt and all. I do not
believe this window will remain open for very long. The more traditional
advertising revenues decrease, the less likely it will be that a split like
this will be viable. Once that window closes, it will be gone for good. Keeping
the businesses together would exact a toll on the online business unit as it
would be forced to operate in a print-dominated world as the company would be
forced to cling to a declining
print-heavy revenue stream just to survive.
The important concept here is to take the small and
growing piece of the media business and put it into an environment where it can
thrive while the option is still on the table.
Coming up next - part two of the transformation: building
a technical backbone.